Proposed US social media requirement for ESTA could cost $15.7 billion in lost tourism

One-third of international travelers say they are less likely to visit the US if the policy is implemented, according to new research

A proposed US rule requiring social media disclosure from ESTA applicants could deter millions of international visitors and cost the country up to $15.7 billion in lost tourism spending, new research warns. The World Travel & Tourism Council (WTTC) published the findings on January 28, 2026, based on a survey of nearly 5,000 travelers from ESTA-eligible countries.

One-third of respondents said they would be somewhat or much less likely to visit the US in the next two to three years if the changes are introduced. Only 12% said they would be more likely to visit, resulting in a significant net decline in travel intent.

WTTC President Gloria Guevara warned the policy would put the US at a competitive disadvantage:

"There are so many places to travel, and the ESTA travelers will choose another destination. We will see a decline and the decline is translated into jobs."

Potential economic impact

Under a high-impact scenario, the WTTC estimates the US could see 4.7 million fewer international arrivals, representing a 23.7% drop in visitors from ESTA countries in 2026. The research, conducted in partnership with GSIQ and Oxford Economics, projects wider tourism GDP losses of $21.5 billion and up to 157,000 American jobs at risk.

The WTTC noted that this job loss figure equals the number of jobs typically created in one quarter in the US, and is three times the average monthly job creation in 2025.

Travelers view the policy as intrusive

Two-thirds of those surveyed said they were already aware of the proposed change. A larger share of respondents said the policy would make the US feel less welcoming and less attractive for both leisure and business travel.

When compared to other major destinations, the proposed US policy was perceived as significantly more intrusive than entry requirements in the UK, Japan, Canada, and Western Europe.

What the proposed rule would require

The rule change, posted on the Federal Register by US Customs and Border Protection (CBP), would affect travelers using the Electronic System for Travel Authorization (ESTA) as part of the Visa Waiver Program. Citizens from more than 40 eligible countries, including the UK, Australia, Japan, and Germany, currently use ESTA to visit the US for up to 90 days without a visa.

Currently, ESTA applicants provide information such as passport numbers, birth dates, and prior criminal history. The proposed change would add social media account disclosure to the application requirements.

Part of broader immigration measures

The proposal follows President Donald Trump's executive order titled "Protecting the United States From Foreign Terrorists and Other National Security and Public Safety Threats," signed in January 2025. The order states that the US must be "vigilant during the visa-issuance process" to ensure that those approved for admission "do not intend to harm Americans or our national interests."